UFL Best Bets: Week 4 Picks

My apologies for not getting this out last week--if it's any consolation, I think I would've been very off for those Week 3 games, though I seem to have done well with the bets I made.

That was a week of nutty results--but very different nutty results. Orlando and Louisville had themselves a real ballgame on Friday--with Orlando getting the 29-27 win on a call by Dean Blandino that...isn't sitting well with folks and probably still befuddles the refs. At least the Kings can rely behind a "the world is against us" sentiment?

The Battlehawks mounted a 4th Quarter comeback at the Battledome to put Birmingham below .500. The Renegades offense trended back down to more sustainable levels but still kept their undefeated record intact, while Columbus managed to dress up another score late on the heels of brand new HC Ted Ginn Jr. getting arrested for DUI the night before their game.

Finally, the D.C. Defenders put on the single most dominant performance in the history of the UFL in front of the very jazzed Audi faithful. Taking in all of that data--make what you will of my Power Rankings. Every single spot is anyone's guess between a few tiers of teams.

I do at least think I have enough information to put together a reasonable MVP Ladder below--if you've read this stuff from me before, you know it kills me to stop at 10 without 30 honorable mentions, but I have a job and a family to think about. With those bits out of the way, let's talk about these Week 4 matchups.

Week 4 Power Rankings:

1. Dallas Renegades

2. D.C. Defenders

3. St. Louis Battlehawks

4. Orlando Storm

5. Birmingham Stallions

6. Louisville Kings

7. Columbus Aviators

8. Houston Gamblers

Week 4 MVP Ladder:

(Trying to spread the love between different positions--focusing on teams with winning records)

1. Austin Reed

2. Jack Plummer

3. Deon Jackson

4. Keshawn Banks

5. Derick Roberson

6. Shaun Wade

7. Sean Fresch

8. Jashaun Corbin

9. Dae Dae Hunter

10. Hakeem Butler

Week 4 Picks

Louisville Kings at Houston Gamblers (Thursday, April 16th, at 8PM ET)

Kings -2.5, O/U 45.5, -148/+124 ML

Look, I am still a little thrown by Houston's lone win over Birmingham too, but the answer to that inquiry is probably that the Stallions just aren't that good--or at least, they aren't what we think of when we think about the Birmingham Stallions--and that also explains how Louisville almost beat them in Week 1 when Chris Redman was as fresh as he'll ever be as a head coach.

I do think that Taulia Tagovailoa will only get more comfortable, and he has great receivers to work with, but Louisville's defense has been very well-rounded and effective. Jason Bean might not be efficient, but he's dangerous, and so it comes down to whether he can minimize turnovers.

I trust the Kings a lot more on defense, and the offenses are a toss-up right now. Louisville has been so close in their first three games, while Houston barely looked professional in two of their three. I think the Louisville Kings pick up the first win in franchise history on the road this week by a final score between 17-14 to 25-18. So, I like Louisville to cover, their ML, and under 45.5.

Dallas Renegades at Columbus Aviators (Friday, April 17th, at 8PM ET)

Renegades -5.5, O/U 47.5, -238/+195 ML

Well...what a mess to clean up for the Aviators...NOT a good look. If anything, they should've just switched Todd Haley and Ted Ginn Jr.'s job descriptions in the wake of this past weekend. Columbus has done plenty of things right.

I think their fanbase is nuts for wanting to start anyone other than Jalan McClendon right now--he's a QB that any ill-equipped team in the world can start and keep games competitive through his accuracy, care of the ball, and ability to run.

Toa Taua hasn't been the TD machine he was last year, but John Lovett has come along--Alize Mack looks like a Brahma again, their prospect WRs have emerged as was hoped, and the defense hasn't been a disaster.

This is another weird back-to-back matchup, this time in Historic Crew Stadium. As it currently goes, it's hard to pick the Aviators to beat almost anyone and hard to believe the Renegades

St. Louis Battlehawks at D.C. Defenders (Saturday, April 18th, at 12:30PM ET)

Defenders -4.5, O/U 43.5, -218/+180 ML

The Battlehawks are rolling with Harrison Frost at QB--I really wish they'd throw Michael Pratt in the mix, but they seemed determined to hold off on that. Harrison Frost seems maybe like a higher-ceiling version of what Brandon Silvers offers, so we'll see if he can keep the turnovers to a minimum when under the pressure of this D.C. Defenders defense.

The folks at Audi Field are high off the incredible blowout victory last week that Jordan Ta'amu didn't even have to pass his way to, and quite simply, this is as perfect of a revenge spot as my eyes have ever seen. After Week 1, it's hard to see an area where the Battlehawks are better than the Defenders.

I see a final score range of 21-14 to 28-22, but I think the over is probably the better play here.

Orlando Storm at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, April 18th, at 4PM ET)

Stallions -2.5, O/U 45.5, -135/+114 ML

I have been more positive than others on the Storm up to this point--yes, they hold two wins over the winless Louisville Kings, but in this league, wins matter even if they are against the bottom half of the league. They also are at least well coached, have great offensive tools, and have gotten efficient play thus far from QB Jack Plummer.

On the other end, it's been very hard to trust the Stallions regardless of competition. They barely escaped Week 1 against Louisville, and their loss to St. Louis could've been prevented. Matt Corral has been good, but his interception proclivity has been a killer. A.J. McCarron has definitely not found his stride as a head coach, they do not have the same overall balance we're used to seeing, and they aren't getting the production they need from their full repertoire of offensive weapons.

Even still, after so much time playing the Louisville Kings, going into Birmingham and remaining undefeated seems way too tall of an order for the Orlando Storm. If that happens, the Storm are that much more for real, and/or the Stallions are that much more in a downward spiral. Until we see Orlando against a non-Columbus or Louisville opponent, it's hard to give them this one. I see this as 24-20 to 28-24 Birmingham.

Parlay of the Week: Kings ML, Renegades ML, Defenders ML, Stallions ML--(+504)

-          Brady Grove