UFL Best Bets: Week 1 Picks

Week 1 Picks

Birmingham Stallions at Louisville Kings (Friday, March 27th, at 8PM ET)

Stallions -5.5, O/U 42.5, -270/+220 ML

A phenomenal choice for the season kick-off--Lynn Family Stadium will be rocking for the Birmingham Stallions to come to town and usher in a new era. The Stallions brand has a lot of people hypnotized into ignoring how similar these teams actually are right now.

Quarterbacks of similar skillsets and streakiness. Freakishly awesome RB tandems. Great pass-catching assets. Birmingham has the overall edge in the O-Line, Defense, and Special Teams, but maybe not by as much as I first thought.

Where I don’t think Birmingham has the edge is in the coaching staff. Week 1, on the road in a venue that is going to be packed and boiling with excitement—Chris Redman might be inexperienced as a coach, but so is A.J., and simply being a UFL QB doesn’t mean you can waltz into a HC gig and uphold the house that Holtz built.

Redman holds unique playing experience too, but he’s in his city putting on for the people who have cheered for him his entire adult life. Birmingham has continuity, but I think Louisville has the better coaching staff overall.

So, maybe A.J. McCarron will find his rhythm as HC as the season goes on, but I highly doubt it’s an immediate, seamless transition. I think the Kings are a live dog—I like the +220 ML play, but I’d prefer just taking them to cover.

Factoring in the new rule changes, let’s say it’s a final score range of 23-19 to 26-21 in either direction, so spit in the face of history and take the over.

D.C. Defenders at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, March 28th, at 12PM ET)

Defenders -4.5, O/U 44.5, -205/+170 ML

An XFL rivalry embedded in the bones of Spring Football--another great matchup for Opening Week. The St. Louis crowd should be on fire for this game—they want revenge for pretty much D.C.’s entire Spring Football existence, and it’s the dawn of a new era in the Battledome.

Unfortunately, this is business as usual for the Defenders—same coach, same huge core of the roster, and same well-rounded style of play. The Battlehawks have a new coaching staff, Jarveon Howard in full-time place of Jacob Saylors, and question marks across the O-Line, Secondary, and Special Teams.

They have major defensive stars in other areas and they have endless options in the WR core, but who is throwing it to them? Veteran Silvers, young gun Pratt?

Will they have enough protection? Will it take some time to work out the kinks of operating in A.J. Smith’s offense? Even if they’re executing his schemes to perfection—is that even a problem for D.C.?

In Week 3 last year, D.C. walked right into St. Louis territory and handed them a 27-15 beatdown when Shannon Harris and company had achieved way less cohesion. I see no reason why we shouldn’t see a similar result on Saturday.

I think the Defenders beat the Battlehawks by a final score range of 21-13 to 26-18, so roll with -4.5 and under 44.5.

Houston Gamblers at Dallas Renegades (Saturday, March 28th, at 4PM ET)

Renegades -5.5, O/U 39.5, -258/+210 ML

A Texas showdown between two slightly rebranded franchises. The Renegades now play in the much more intimate, 20,000-seat Toyota Stadium (home of FC Dallas) in Frisco. Now the crowd will seem fuller, rowdier, and less sad than seeing a mostly empty and quiet Choctaw Stadium, which seats 48,000.

The Gamblers HC is Kevin Sumlin—not C.J. Johnson. That’s pretty much as big of an improvement as any UFL team made at any individual spot all offseason. The Renegades are now captained by Rick Neuheisel with the retirement of Bob Stoops.

That pretty much evens out.

Stoops won the 2023 XFL Championship, but Neuheisel has had a ton of coaching gigs back to 1986 both on offense and as head coach, to include his time at the helm of the AAF Arizona Hotshots in 2019.

Dallas has a lot of quality continuity. Luis Perez, Dae Dae Hunter, and Tyler Vaughns are the crucial offensive pillars—of note, they add Lorenzo Lingard, Denzel Mims, and Drake Stoops. Even still, this team is going to sorely miss the presence of Sal Cannella and Kalen Ballage.

Between Domenique Davis, Willie Taylor III, Taco Charlton, T.J. Franklin, Donald Payne,  and Ajene Harris on defense, Dallas is a very imposing force to deal with. I question their Kicker, but the rest of their ST situation is solid.

Houston is coming off a nice bounce-back year. It looked like Hunter Dekkers was the sure QB1 until very recently, but then the Gamblers signed Taulia Tagovailoa, who did stints in the CFL, ELF, and IFL after finishing his college career at Maryland. I have reservations about both, but Tagovailoa has the highest ceiling. I also love the pass-catching options they’ve assembled.

Houston has their share of defensive stars too, but they’re not as well-rounded as a whole. Their ST is questionable too outside of LS Marco Ortiz.

These two OLs will need to step up this year to give their teams a chance to move the ball through the air and in their respective backfield committees, and that might me dependent on a few key gems realizing their potential.

Ultimately, it’s Dallas playing at home, Dallas with way less to figure out by Week 1, Dallas with the greater offensive continuity, and Dallas with the more impressive, full-bodied defense.

I love using the Dallas ML in a parlay, but I’m iffy on the spread. Last year’s first meeting was an 11-9 win for the Renegades, and though circumstances have changed, I do think that the offenses will struggle to put up points and this will be a war of attrition between the defenses.

I think this final score lands in the range of 14-10 to 18-14. They can definitely cover, but it could come down to a few defensive players or Special Teams moments. If you haven’t done the math yourself yet—I’m shooting considerably under the mark of 39.5.

Columbus Aviators at Orlando Storm (Sunday, March 29th, at 8PM ET)

Storm -1.5, O/U 41.5, Pick'em -110

In spirit, Aviators tackling a Storm is always compelling matchup--more importantly, we cap Week 1 with a game between two franchises that didn't exist last year (at least in their current forms).

Columbus has Jalan McClendon and Tao Taua leading the way on offense, poised for many rushing TDs in 2026. They have solid supporting backfield pieces, and their receiving core is composed of some steady vets and a few prospects that Ted Ginn Jr. must have high confidence in.

McClendon should look to lean on TEs Gunnar Oakes and Alize Mack early on to establish an offensive rhythm for this strangely composed roster. Their O-Line, Defense, and ST all have some very strong pieces and some obvious holes.

I love what Orlando has going on. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is my early pick for UFL MVP and Jashaun Corbin was one of the league’s most dominant backs in 2025. Their pass-catchers are a proverbial toolbox of niche skillsets.

The O-Line and Defense feature some very strong foundational players and HC Anthony Becht is clearly counting on some of his chosen prospects to step up and fill the remaining voids. Orlando, like several other squads, have All-UFL candidates at LS and P but a gamble at Kicker.

I don’t trust Ted Ginn Jr. as a Head Coach—this situation doesn’t tend to go well. At best, I think the Aviators will need time to sync their offense and develop their most important prospects, and you just don’t have that kind of time in Spring Football.

On the other hand, I definitely trust Anthony Becht’s coaching, and the change of scenery out of St. Louis could be a breathe of fresh air. His offense is designed to have a lot to choose from, they have maybe the best RB in the league, and I like what they’ve done with the OL and Defense overall marginally more than what Columbus has put together.

This one is in Florida—hopefully Orlando makes good on their newest Spring Football opportunity. I think they are the clear picks to win this game—maybe by the biggest differential of Week 1—and so -1.5 and -110 are slam dunks to me.

With that, I see a final score range of 16-9 to 24-11, so shoot for another under to close out Opening Weekend.

Parlay of the Week:

Kings +5.5, Defenders ML, Renegades ML, Storm ML = +652

-          Brady Grove